tv Fast Money CNBC August 31, 2015 5:00pm-6:01pm EDT
that does it for us on "closing bell." "fast money" begins right noimsa lee, what's on tap? >> horrible month for stocks p not so for best buy. up 14% for august. we've got the analyst who says best buy is giving amazon a run for its money. >> it's a very high-tech sounding show. melissa we'll get straight over to you guys. >> thanks, kelly. live from the nasdaq marketsite overlooking new york city's times square i'm melissa lee. your traders on the decemberric tim seymour, david seaburg, pete najarian and guy adami. tonight on "fast" the p'll rumor mill back in high gear. from the car to price on its tv we are separating fact from fiction on all things apple. plus crude wiping out all of august's steep losses. this as money manager mohamed el ariane calling a perfect stop for oil. oil rallying more than 6% capping a huge three-day gain of 27%. so tonight we ask what suddenly has changed in crude and how much higher can it go? guy adami kick it off.
>> i think tim alluded to this late last week we could see a move like this. it's probably up 25% to 30% over the last three trading sessions or so. i don't think it means the economy's necessarily any stronger and i'm not necessarily sure it means great things for the s&p. s&p which closed basically 1970, which is to me a pivot point. what it does mean, i think, is as short as the market has been you can't allow yourself to remain short with this rhetoric out there. pete can talk to this. we talked about it on friday. despite the move higher on friday you saw the lvx spike higher. you saw it again today. makes me believe that maybe the worst isn't over on the down side. >> really? >> yeah. >> it does make wonder right now you look at the lvx and we're talk about 60 back in march at the high end and then all the way down to the 30s in late june, then suddenly 40, then 45 and 50 and today all the way up to 55. volatility's not just in the s&p 500. we talk about the vix all the time. look at that lvx guy was just talking about. the oil volatility is absolutely extreme. i can tell you one thing.
there is monstrous paper coming into the options of just about every oil-related name that you can find. looking for more up side. so doesn't mean that's going to happen. that could be some protection. a lot of these names were shorted and shorted and shorted. there's buyers on the up side. but in the short term i'd rather be owning some of these calls to the up side in various of these names. i bought a lot today because i think they're still going to be a squeeze play in process. >> and it was a great day for the xle overall but take a look at what gained the most. it wasn't the higher quality names. >> it was the worst quality -- >> like whiting petroleum. >> whiting's been a place where a lot of shorts have had their hands ripped off. the question i throw out there is if oil's up 25% does that mean that growth is back? in other words, in the same way we were saying the oil price was truth in terms of the global economy what are you saying after a 25% move? i'm not sure you're saying anything. but you have to think about it both ways because oil could go back down lower but don't indict the global economy for this. today it was opec. so opec was out there saying frahm they could come to market,
they could bring non-opec or the entire oil community together if it was a level playing field they would think about that conversation. they also said they were concerned about the infrastructure and the investment in oil infrastructure and the fact that while oil prices will not allow people to invest if n. it. also the eia saying their methodology has changed enough and that they actually see that u.s. production peaked in april and that's at 9.6 million we're down to 9.4 or something like that. you've seen u.s. production come back and that's something for people who were shorting oil you have to be very careful right now. >> let's say the shorts are out. that doesn't necessarily mean we're going to see a higher trade. the question people are asking after this big rally in oil is is it time now goat into oil stocks? you're never going to be able to pick a bottom. so is now the time? >> i think just because i think we can all agree we've put a bottom into oil at some level i don't think it necessarily means you rush out and buy the stocks. however, when you do want to buy the stocks because something happens like a cut it's going to be a fierce move to the up side because there's going to be so many people that are underweight the space rush into it and buy
it aggressively. if you wait too long you could miss a trade to the up side. again, i do think you have time, however. >> so you don't want to rush in and buy the stocks but you don't want to wait until it happens. >> correct. i think in the in between stages it's hard to -- >> i bring that up. i know it's in my world. but when you look at what's been trading, halliburton, cannot co., good names, but also whiting petroleum and cabot and some of these other names much lower on the food chain, those names are seeing very short-term payday. >> what does oil's rally mean for stocks in general? moemd el ariane is pimco's former ceo, now chief economic adviser at allianz. mohamed, always great to speak with you. >> thank you. >> what do you think this 27% rally in i will over the past couple days means for stocks and the economy for that matter? >> i agree with the view it tells you nothing about the global economy. what it tells you is two things. one is this is an unhinged market, having lost its three anchors. it lost its demand anchor, its supply anchor, and it lost its swing producer.
therefore, any small bit of news will move it enormously. second, it tells you that a market technically is very offside. lots and lots of shorts all over the place. and the result of that is you don't get much. in fact, today's news isn't that consequential but it was enough to be that little spark to move something that has no anchors. and looking ahead that's what we're going to get, more and more volatility both on the way up and the way down. >> so if i connect the dots here, mohamed, that means that investing in oil equities could also be sort of a whipsaw trade still. >> yeah. and the bad news for equities is we're coming from a regime where repressing volatility was key to keeping valuations high. right? that was the trade. you press volatility. now we've seen two markets completely unanchored. the currency market was very difficult to contain the volatility, and the oil market was very difficult to contain the volatility. the main issue for equities is how do you reprice a different
vol paradigm? >> we've talked about that, mohamed, on the show, the volatility in other asset classes and other markets not yet spilling over into the equity markets and now it seems like we've gotten that. do you think we've seen the worst of it or do you think there is still more to come because we are still seeing the volatility that we've seen for months and months and maybe even the past year in the currency markets as well as the e.m. markets, et cetera, but not necessarily here yet. >> so i fehr there's still more to come. that's because if you look at where the anchor is it's not going to be an endodge nous anchor. tlaz lot of cash on the sideline including corporate balance sheet. but that can't a stabilizer. it needs an external stabilizer. with the economic problem shifting overseas the fed is not as powerful a stabilizer as it has been in the past and the global economy is really fluid. we have a two-speed economy. the u.s. continues to do well. the rest of the world is struggling. and that puts the fed in a really difficult position.
so i fear, melissa, what we've seen recently is an indication of what's to come which is a lot more volatility. >> does that necessarily mean the markets go lower, though, mohamed? >> it does in the short term because 69 exte because of the extent to which the low vol paradigm sucked people in. who hasn't been shaken yet? the regional investor has been shaken somewhat, fast money has been shaken. but the institutional investor hasn't been shaken yet. keep an eye on what these long-term institutional investors do because they're the ones who haven't really adjusted their portfolios and asset allocation to higher volatility. >> mohamed, as always great to speak with you. thank you for your analysis. >> thank you. >> mohamed el-errian of allianz. institutions have not adjusted to this period of higher volatility which would imply there's still more volatility to come because they have to adjust. >> pete can speak to vol, but it's still elevated clearly and in terms of the s&p we're right at a huge pivot point to me. this is a week where it makes or
breaks, it either goes back to 2054 off this 1970 level or unfortunately i think we retest the levels we saw last week. in terms of oil, though, pete mentioned these short dated options. look at a name like schlumberger which may have capitulated at least in the short term but it traded close to 68 million shares. closed at 70 bucks, although valuation is rich you could probably trade it from the long side against that level. >> speaking of volatility we've got china pmis overnight and also the ecb meeting on thursday. >> and non-farm pay rolls on friday. there's a huge, huge docket ahead of you labor day weekend. so add that to people who really care about labor day weekend around the world but it means that a lot of people here are going to be trading and i think you have major events. the unintended consequences for the fed of not raising i think are almost as much if they actually do raise. >> coming up next one of the most widely followed twitter analysts on the street is changing his tune after six months on the sideline. you'll hear just what has him so excited. plus, holy apple rumors. from cars to the new iphone, which reports are true and which are false?
sunedison popping in the after-hours session. dom chu's got the details at headquarters. >> we've got our shares of sunedison the solar electric power company up by 3 1/4% on a million shares of volume this after steve cohen reports a 5% passive stake in sunedison. those shares are trading right around $10.40 to close. $10.75 in the after-hours session. but remember, these shares are the ones that are down 47% year to date. 53% on a one-year basis. and among the major names involved of course david einhorn's greenlight capital were shareholders as of june 30th.
so were third point dan loeb's shop, glenview capital, lone pine, fir tree among some of the names pape lot of hedge funds traffic in this particular stock and now point 72 not a hedge fund per se but still a man who knows a lot about trading taking a 5% it appears near one of the lower levels today. back over to you guys. >> thank you very much, dom chu. this name had been known as a hedge fund hotel, may be turned into motel. we should note the ceo also disclosing through a filing today that he's bought 9700 shares for $9.92 on friday. this follows the cfo buys as well as directors -- >> a lot of directors buying stock. i think the big issue -- talk to analysts about this the analyst community doesn't know how to value the stock that's not a big deal. doesn't mean there's the problems that could be there but when analysts can't guide a stock that's one of the big issues. >> absolutely. confusing. i think the company's extremely confusing, confusing investors. they don't want to touch it. so i'd stay away f the near term. >> but before you were saying you like sun edison. >> i like the stock. i think it's fine. it will work out ultimately. but the company's done a really poor job about keeping things
straight-b really understanding how to -- or teaching analysts how to value the company. i think tim puts out a very good point there. if you can't understand this you're not going to buy it and you shouldn't buy it. i think 9 stock's going to have an overhang for a period of time. >> we've hay ceo on several times on "fast money," i repeatedly extend an invitation to him to appear on the show again. ever since the highs in july. and we have not gotten any word back from them. huge day for twitter meantime kicking off the top trade. robinson upgrading the buy to a neutral. suntrust bob peck citing new management and new products as key catalysts to drive the shares higher. he spoke earlier today on the halftime report about the call. >> you're about to have a series of catalysts coming along here from the rumored board meeting which took place today to the ceo announcement next week. then more importantly these product rollouts. project lightning, the google integration. all the various products they're rolling out which can give you an acceleration in m.a.u.s as well as monetization. >> we should note he has been
the ax on this stock of late because he downgraded the stock just before earnings and the stock went down precipitously. >> that's why we all pay so much attention when bob peck's talking, specifically when he's talking about facebook and when he's been talking about twitter he's been extremely accurate. when you look at this twitter call today it makes some sense because he's talking about the catalysts out there. ceo, obviously they've got to figure out ways they can get their products to be able to get that monthly active user to start going back up. the engagement back up. i'm not so convinced yet, and i think it's going to take more time. bob's got a 38 price target. he had a 38 price target. you would have thought maybe as he shifted to a buy he would have raised that up a little more. i think i was a little surprised by that. and because of that i don't think you have to rush into twitter right now. >> i also wonder, one of the catalysts he mentioned is naming the new ceo this week before labor day zmeeshl and that that new ceo would be jack dorsey. i just wonder when the stock is actually going to react if jack dorsey is named the ceo. >> i think it's terrible. it's actually terrible. there's a pop in the stock.
there's absolutely a trade in the stock at these levels for some sort of announcement. but i'll tell you what, if they name jack dorsey they should have an activist come in and take this company down because it's a shame because they're not going to be able to transmit that into m.a.u.s for growth. there's no doubt. >> i'm obviously concerned about the ceo. i'm also concerned about how the stock trades. i bought the stock on friday. the way it has traded is it's been holding these bottom levels and i think again we talk about exhaustion in a stock. this stock has exhibited. the monetization. i think twitter's a unique platform that's trying to figure out how it's going to begin to monetize. it's doing interesting things. i think it's not necessarily a bad takeout play. this is about people that have to buy the stock and will step in. >> next up tough day for financial blackstone. the stock falling more than 4% today. the move comes as morningstar assigned an a-minus credit rating to the stock this morning. this sniffs like something beyond a morningstar rating change. >> it does. let me be clear. this is a name i've liked for a long time. into the summer.
as it approached 44, as it traded back down. but something changed july-ish. and a series of things to me changed. we'll list all three because we have before. obviously they must have some energy exposure. we talked about that. real estate holdings has to be a concern at some level. but when their cfo left to go be the cfo of air bnb seemingly he was the heir apparent to take over. leaving for a job like that to me was a huge red flag. yes, the vl valuation is reasonable, but the stock is trading as if there's serious problems there. i know nothing. i will say this, though. as the stock goes lower the dividend yield continues to rise. you wonder how sustainable now an 8% dividend yield is. i'm just saying it does not trade well on a bad tape and it does not trade well on a good tape. >> 8% in and of itself seems like a red flag. >> when you start seeing that kind of a yield you absolutely just wonder when are they going to have to cut it because you just figure they're going to eventually have to cut it. i love this company along with
guy for a long period of time. i think exposure levels is why we're seeing so much pressure on the stock. i think if it gets to 30 below 30 that's probably the buy point. >> still ahead according to suntrust best buy is now able to price match rival amazon online. could best buy mount an unlikely challenge to amazon? we've got the analyst behind that call. he's joining us live. you're watching cnbc. we're first in business worldwide. in the meantime here's what else is coming up on "fast." >> a slew of rumors on everything from the apple tv price tag to a next generation iphone to an elusive apple car means it's the perfect time to play a little fact versus fiction on one of america's most widely held stocks. plus billionaire investor carl icahn sounded the alarm on etfs just a few weeks ago. >> you use it as a dumb machine that just tells you at the end of the day here's a lot of money go buy the index. it's a dumb machine. the state could do it like a damn highway. >> find out what has the charts
9 to 5 mac saying they could unveil a new device last week priced at 149 or 99. is that fact or fiction, dan? >> yeah, that's fact. ultimately, we view it right here. they really need to go for more premium pricing. this sets the stage for the tv to come out in 2016. it's going to have that siri capabilities, a lot more enhanced functionality. so we think premium pricing tip of the iceberg in terms of what they have on the apple tv for the next year. >> the next rumor has to do with the next generation iphone. mac rumors.com says imtphone 6s and 6 plus will be unveiled next week and could have forced touch technology and improved 12 megapixel camera. dan, fact or fiction? >> yeah, fact. i'd bet the house on that one. that's really from all of our data points. that's going to be front and center. especially the 6s. like everyone's talked about including your show often, i mean, that's really the overhang here about that iphone 6 hangover. they need to show 6s has that horsepower to really fuel this upgrade cycle that's been the overhang on apple stocks,
especially with china. >> i feel a little embarrassed asking about that one. next up is a report from gizmodo speculating a 12.9-inch ipad pro could be revealed september 9th. fact or fiction, dan? >> i'd view this as fact. and this is probably the most controversial one because i think it's possible we have an october -- late october, early november launch. but i do believe that ipad pro is going to be introduced. this is a focus on the enterprise market. not coincidental that you saw the cisco announcement today. sets the stage. that's the next focus for apple on the enterprise side. that's been the achilles heel for this company over the last few years. >> and finally, dan, we couldn't do an apple rumor fact or fiction cycle without talking about the car. fact or fiction that apple will unveil details about a car project? what do you think? >> fiction. and i think even though they have been working on it i don't think we see any sort of glimpses of that for another year in terms of beta, what they're working on in the lab.
right now front and center it's really the tv, that next gen iphone and this next gen ipad, the ipad pro. that's going to be the focal point. i don't expect them to tip their hand on anything on the car front. >> okay. dan, great to see you. thank you. >> great to be here. >> dan ives, fbr. here's a scorecard on fact or fiction. apple will announce an apple tv, updated iphones and an ipad pro, and dan does not think, so it's fiction we'll get details on an apple car. what's our trade here? it's sort of just, i don't know -- >> first of all, that's a great game. one of "fast money's" best games. and dan was superior at the game. but if i look at it, the thing he bet the house on is the upgrades to the iphone, which i think are still what's driving the stock. so the september quarter is probably 42 million phones. the december quarter is really what everybody's looking for. analysts are starting to goose up their numbers a little bit. 72, 73 million phones. if you get there a lot of up side on the stock. either way a safe place to hold the stock into september's announcement. >> i get there are downward pressures on the market overall and apple outperformed the
overall markets. but still citi today put appling in its focus list and cited this analyst jim suvik who did channel check essentially showing his channel check showed there'sn't any pressure on orders or builds in asia. that would be my concern for the december quarter which is the most important question. >> our channel check showed pressure. we saw builds being roughly down 10%. we saw pressure in the channel checks we were setting up here. look, i think the stock's $130 max by the end of the year. that's the max up side in my opinion of this stock. i think at these levels it's probably dead money for the near term. >> guy? >> i think it was a fun game. but i would have integrated bells and whistles for fact and fiction. >> buzzer for fiction? >> yeah. [ buzzer ] like that. >> nice. >> august 23rd it traded close to 300 shares. back out that print and 103 1/2 or so was the low. i think you trade it against that level if you're looking for an entry point, stay long against 103 1/2. >> how are you feeling about apple these days, pete?
>> i'm still bullish. i think the ipad pro and the enterprise is something that is very important. that's an area they really haven't been able to get themselves into. as dan points out, i think that could be a monstrous area. so i actually disagree with you. i think it can get over 130. >> and is september 9th going to be the catalyst? >> i don't know that that's coming out september 9th. i think that might come a little later. i think dan was alluding that might come -- >> down the road. coming up, a top technician says we are about to see a lot more volatility and the cause could be a popular investment in your portfolio. we'll tell what you it is when we come back. and later, what was behind biotech's big slide today and whether any of the hardest hit names in today's sell-off are worth a buying opportunity. much more "fast money" straight ahead. xçó0
welcome back to "fast money." markets falling today with the dow down just about to lows of the session but only ending the day down 100 points and managing to close out of correction territory. here's what's coming up in the second half of "fast money." a major reversal in crude oil, closing up nearly 9% after starting the day lower. so will oil stocks be the next to rally? plus best buy catching up to amazon in one major metric. could it be a bigger threat than investors think? a top analyst weighs in. but first the dow, s&p and
nasdaq all down 6% this month. but my next guest says the worst is yet to come and the reason may be hiding inside your portfolio. carter worth is the head of technical analysis at cornerstone macro. carter, what do you mean inside your portfolio? >> yeah. on monday the big issue, and our entire weekend was spent on this with clients and so forth, was monday last capitulation day? meaning an epic plunge dow, we come in down 1,000. what we know is a lot of individual stocks it turns out were being influenced by what was going on not at the stock level but by the etf level. so major selling in baskets forcing stocks themselves to drop significantly and not on a lot of volume. look at this juxtaposition. here's the s&p mid-cap index and here is the etf that tracks it. this is a fairly large cap thing, 14 billion. two things i want to point out. the index did not undercut the october low. and of course the etf did. the mid-cap index was down all
of 13%. but the etf, the mdy, was down 23. now, that's called a tracking error. you're not performing in line with your index. now, it's not just this one. there are hundreds of them. but i want to pick on a few big ones. this is one of the biggest of all. you could say maybe the mid-cap was illiquid. but take a look at this again. the relationship, where this is in relation to the low for the index and then the qqq blew out that low. and so again here the index itself down 19 but the etf down some 26. last one. this is incredible. it's a good index. it talks about market health. there's no apple effect. every stock is a 0.2% weight. again we didn't undercut that low. and look at this. i mean, literally we plunged. so there was selling going on in baskets which forced individual
securities to go down. so the equal weighted was down only 13%. and yet the etf was down 47%. if it can go down that much, why can't it go down 60%? meaning who's to say what happened on monday could have been magnified by two or threefold forcing that much more selling? so the issue here is the tail is starting to wag the dog a little bit. look at this. total assets in etf is now about 2 trillion. and just in 2000 you're talking about 100 billion. all u.s. equity mutual funds are what, 8 1/2 trillion at that? what's happening is a lot of active managers, not just retail, active managers using them for blunt moves to get in, get out, expose themselves to capital themes, and that's starting to have some impact on the market itself. and so ultimately we know that the s&p, well-defined trend, this trend starts of course since the debt downgrade in 2011 we've had four or five perfect bounces off trend and we have broken trend. not because i say so. because the lines tell us so. and now we've thrown back a
little bit. we think we get trapped under the trend line and we revisit the lows. >> so the trading in etfs, carter, exacerbated what we saw in the markets? >> it's interesting. it's crazy. here i'll give you five big stocks. jpmorgan down 21%. on monday. in fact, home depot, exact same thing. 21%. so is colgate, 21%. so is a drugstore, cvs. all the exact same percentage. the beta in colgate is a .5. the beta in jpmorgan's a 1.5. assets. and yet the volume all dropping 20%. average daily volume or a little bit more. when you drop 20%, you shave tenfold increase in volume. so what's happening is no one was actually selling jpm or portfolio managers i've got to get out of cvs. they were being caught up in programs. it's the robots, etfs. a lot of auto correlation. >> carter we've got to leave it there. fascinating stuff. carter braxton worth. >> yeah. >> it's fascinating because he said the way i think the industry has changed. as a fund manager we use etfs
all the the time. it's where liquidity is. and in fact a lot of fund managers will try to tell you they don't use them because it's almost cheating. you're shorting an index. you could be doing more creative things. you're paid to do different things. but what carter is pointing out is that the markets lost control on monday and people are scrambling around trying to understand what the impact is for the retail investor. you see this. etfs have been a supposedly safe place to play. and the question is were the etfs safe but not the underlying stocks? that's exactly what happened. on some level you shouldn't feel so bad. if you were investing in etfs because they behaved kind of as they could on the rebalance. >> what were you -- >> i was making the point when a lot of brokers are putting their clients into these etfs they're putting in trailing sell stops. so when the market gets down to a certain level it automatically goes off. a one-off scenario like that isn't necessarily going to have a big impact but when you have groups of them loaded up ready to go it can have a dramatic effect. we saw it in the biotech tape last year. >> if i were sitting at home i'd be terrified after i heard that. right? i mean -- >> good thing we're not sitting at home then.
couple of things dawned on me. i think carter speaking of sort of the technical damage that now has been done for the first time in quite some time. i want to mention this as well. pete's in the university of minnesota hall of fame. if we had a "fast money" smartboard hall of fame carter braxton worth. he'd be in the inaugural class. he rocks that thing. >> absolutely. number one. >> it's amazing. >> well, the management group that we have formed does go individual names. and the only thing we use etfs for is the hedging aspect of it. in other words, the spidrs using the put side to try to hedge. >> you're in the worst position if you were in the individual names. zbll only if you got shook out. now, it's one thing about that chart that actually stands out most to me, is look at how quickly that chart returned right back to those levels. so i know we breached them but the the fact we bounced back as quick as we did just kind of makes me wonder hey, look, every once in a while you get those aberrations like that. >> we've got a market flash on biotech getting hit in today's session. let's get to dom in the
newsroom. >> the ishares nasdaq biotech etf, the ibb the one everyone talks-b over 3% to the down side today. off 10% for the month of august alone. it's in that correction territory phase. some of the names dragging that whole sector down on the large cap side of things within even the s&p 500, vertex pharmaceuticals, celgene, regeneron, all down today. the ibb up still around 10% so far on a year to date basis, 12%, about 23%, 24% on a one-year. sought momentum is still there but it's worrying some traders that err woo seeing this relative momentum shift. back over to you. >> pete, were you buying any of these names? >> you know, i haven't. i've been look agent some of these names and i know guy the other day was responding back to somebody on twitter and talking about his favorite names and i would have agreed with the exact grouping he had. i think it was celgene, gilead, amgen was your order, one, two, and three. but i'm looking at this ibb
right now that's sitting right on the 200-day moving average. once again, if it actually gets underneath that level for more than a single day, then i'd be much more fearful. >> what level? >> right around 340. >> look, i like these long term. especially the high-quality names. what i think you have going on here really is an overweight to an equal weight shift in a lot of portfolios. and that's just going to keep a lid on this space for a while. but long term i think they're going to continue to go higher. nothing else is providing this kind of growth opportunity. >> could this be part of the adjustment, the allocation adjustment? >> well, look at health care and pharma as well. it's not just, you know, high momo biotech. but look at health care hospitals that have been a rock for the market. a lot of m&a activity. that's what's been selling off. i thought today's technical, back to courter, a lot of things broken. this looks broken. >> i'm glad you brop brought up the hospitals and some other health care names. merck say standout. tenet health care got an upgrade. down 2%. >> on the other side unh hasn't gone anywhere. i think it's still trading around 115, 116. this is classic to me, this is
the etfs driving the individual names. you know, the ibb traded down to 360 and bounced. that was a textbook 10% correction off that $400 high we made in july. now we've overshot. now we're talking 20%. so it's imperative now that we hold -- >> it closed below the 200 today. if you want to really get technical and say it lost it today, it rallied back above that after the pushback on monday of last week and you felt good, you shouldn't feel so good right now. >> still ahead, crude oil jumping 27% in just the past three days, erasing all of its losses for the month of august. will the big oil stocks follow suit? we've got all the details right after the break. plus in the battle of the online giants best buy, the underdog, is catching up. could this be the beginning of the biggest upset of all time? much more "fast money" straight ahead.
made sure everyone got their latest gadgets. what's up for the next shift? ah, nothing much. just keeping the lights on. (laugh) nice. doing the big things that move an economy. see you tomorrow, mac. see you tomorrow, sam. just another day at norfolk southern. should you be fearing the fed or welcoming rate hikes with open arms? i'll tell you what you must be doing to set up your money. plus a company capitalizing on american energy and the ceo of the hottest retailer. "mad money" is next. welcome back to "fast." check out the huge reversal in crude oil today falling earlier and then rallying higher by nearly 9%. so will the big oil stocks be next to take off? roger reed is a senior analyst at wells fargo. he joins us on the "fast" line. great to speak with you. >> same. thanks, melissa. >> what do you make of today's
oil rally and the fact that within the oil equity rally we saw today were the lower quality names like the whiting petroleums, the shale plays that really gained the most? >> in terms of what's gained the most, it's been so erratic with the oil price move. we've seen a number of stocks move strongly, but even the large caps have had some giant moves here that aren't tied to shale at all. >> in your coverage universe, the stocks you like you've got a buy rating on exxon, con koerks a hold on chevron and hess. is the buy rating predicated on the notion that there will be some sort of recovery in oil and these stocks will do the best or there will be a sustained downturn in oil and these stocks will fare the best? >> the nice thing with the large caps su get some of both with that. what's been one of our top picks and certainly has outperformed well has been occidental. if you look at that, the balance sheet's the best in the group. the company's well positioned. you've got growth this year and
a good chance of growth in '16 assuming oil prices hold somewhere in sort of a $50 to $60 range. we would point out of our outperform names the one that's really lagged though would be marathon oil. down the most. it's bounced about the same as the most. so it hasn't really outperformed this far off the bottom and would be worth taking a look at here. >> roger, i'm not asking you about specific names but what does wells fargo think about the precipitous drop we've seen in refiners over the past couple of weeks? >> well, a lot of that i think you could safely say is seasonal. we're coming to the end of the gasoline-driven part of the year. you've had some compression in the crack spreads, which has been exacerbated by the move in crude. so retreat in refiners this time of the year could hardly be considered unusual. but if you look at the long-term for the refiners, structurally you're very advantaged in the u.s. it's a low-cost place to do
business. because of natural gas. because of the growth in shale crudes. and we're clearly able to export product at increasing levels each year. refiners are structurally advantaged but seasonally to pull back again not a surprise. >> hey, roger, it's tim. if we believe eia, and we should, production has fallen for seven straight weeks in the u.s. who benefits from this? who in the space in a contracting production environment of the names we're talking about, again, because they have the best balance sheet or they're in the best position to kick it back up when it's time to go are the guys that you like here? >> well, i think marathon that's really pulled back here really fits that well. it's a little over half their production is shale. both in the eagleford and in the oklahoma ardmore region. so that's one that would certainly be well positioned. and then the one that we've really been very favorable towards, oxy here, again, a leading position in the permian. where really they've pulled back
on the rib count but haven't pulled back on the production growth side. those two i would definitely say are well positioned for whichever scenario plays out here. >> okay, roger, great to speak with you. thank you, roger read of wells fargo. and of course we have to add billionaires and investors, billionaire investors investing here. we've got buffett in philips 66. we've got icon in freeport-mcmoran in just the past five days or so. >> i look at the higher quality names in the enp space, that's where i'd be focusing right now. i think oil's capped at 50 bucks and i think it's going to be there because there's going to be hedging that goes on. you listen to steve last week discuss that. but i think in general the big oils i don't think they're the ones that are going to move the most. if you look at the ones -- they're the ones that were underperformed. >> we said at the top of the show talking about these names and marathon was one of them that was in today. i bought some options in there as well. again, the one concern i would have is everything that we're seeing right now is so short
term. i mean, long-term right now in the oil space people are going to october. which i know in most people's minds is extremely short. it is for me even. but if that's as far as they're willing to go it just gives you a little bit of an idea right now of what sort of volatility people are expecting in oil. is it going to go up through 50 and actually go out and test 55 or are we going to go right back and get back in the 40 range? >> i guess the jury's out on that. >> i think you have to stay with high quality. some high quality's traded very well. look at anadarko, off 25% off the highs. the relative sector. the cash flow where you're going to lose money this year, they have a much better balance sheet. they will take market share. go with quality at this time. it will be a much better place to play. >> real quick, i don't think -- it's more than just seasonality to me in the refiners. if you look at a play, tesoro specifically has to recapture
research firm suntrust out with a report saying best buy has been able to price match online rival amazon for the first time. that could be a game changer for the brick and mortar retailer. analyst david magee is behind the report pe joins us live on the phone. great to speak with you. >> thank you. >> i think this is interesting because took a basket of 50 items, big ticket items and accessories and you actually found for the first time that there's parity. what does this mean? >> well, we've been doing these checks for the last couple years and we've seen a gradually decreasing gap between the two firms. most recently we saw a gap on the accessory side. this was the first time we've seen pricing parity throughout the store, which removes another obstacle for customers from shopping at best buy. >> i get that this is a good thing when competing against amazon. at the same time are they really gaining share from amazon? are they gaining share elsewhere? >> it's hard to say. i don't cover amazon.
but i think if you look at best eye's numbers in the last couple quarters and look specifically at the consumer electronics same-store sales number i think that would case they're gaining share from somebody. >> in terms of housing, you say that the housing market is actually benefiting best buy. is it best buy specific or is it benefiting this entire group? >> i think it would be the entire group. i think for the first time in a couple years the broader sector feels better. i think housing is a piece of that. we've seen some consolidation out there amongst the players. best buy by having pricing parity, improving the service within their stores, upgrading the website, you know, adding the loyalty program they've really become a very compelling play for consumer electronics. the other thing is these products, for the most part are the type products that consumers like to try out personally. >> right. they want to touch and feel the products before they actually buy them.
we have to address the rapid ascent in best buy's stock price. does that concern you? it was up 14% in the month of august while the rest of the market had its worst month in years. >> the numbers are good. they sound more optimistic about their business than they've sounded in a while. the stock is still not expensive. it's tough to change attitudes on this one in the near term. but i think that it's not unrealistic to think that the p/e can go from, you know, 12, 13 times to maybe 14 or 15 times. >> okay. so there could be some expansion. david, thanks for phoning in. we appreciate it. >> great. thank you. >> david magee of suntrust. he doesn't cover amazon which is why i didn't ask the question is it going to give amazon a run for its money? but i'm going to ask you that question. >> no. but i think it's kind of apples and oranges to the extent they play in the same sector when it comes to big box, et cetera. best buy, the rumors of its demise were much exaggerated. and to say that it's rosy
sailing in the future for these guys, no. but their margins and their sales are very much stabilized. i think the stock is cheap but you trade it between 32 and 38, 39, i think at the top end of this range. i think it's a company that's turned itself around. >> i would not be a buyer of best buy here. i do think that amazon's going to eat their lunch. it's a machine to go up against them. it's insane to think that best buy's going to win over amazon. i think it's the top end of the range, it's really been predicated on short covering here so i'm a seller. >> at the same time they could both do fine. one doesn't preclude the others. it's not like best buy gains and amazon -- >> is guy still showrooming at best buy? he sits in front of a tv, he's there all day saturday. >> he has no intention to buy, he's just sitting there watching tv. >> but you go back to the quarter it's pretty good. inventory's down 12% year over year, margins improving, not expensive on valuation, and low teen short interest, which means maybe you have a couple more bucks to the up side. >> with the margins improving and the online sales going up 17% they're doing everything
right. i think management's doing an outstanding job. but i would agree with these guys. i think at these levels you don't have to chase it. i know mike kuo's got some stuff to talk about. >> come on. >> the shares rallied more than 2%. the question here is where are traders betting the stock will go? so mike kuo, you're in austin. what do you see? >> first of all, one week ago i shopped for a camera at amazon. i bought it at best buy. that was 200 bucks they got out of me right there. with the stock up a little over 20% we saw sellers of the september 36 calls. i'm betting these are people who are long the stock and think that there isn't that much more room to the up side. >> much more room to the up side. >> there is not much more. >> these options traders are buying expensive cameras. top notch. >> you hit the button with the little -- >> it shoots out the -- >> it explodes and film comes out. >> the film just comes right out
the bottom. >> mike kuo, big spender. thank you. for more "options action" check out the full show, 5:30 p.m. eastern time on friday. coming up on "mad money" tonight, oil rallied more than 30% from its intraday lows just a week ago to close out august. cramer's talking energy exports and an investment from carl icahn with chen yooer. plus the ceo of ulta beauty on the company's bombshell earnings. coming up the traders tell us what they're watching out for tomorrow. much more "fast money" straight ahead. random? no it's all about understanding patterns like the mail guy at 3:12 every day or jerry, getting dumped every third tuesday. this happens every third tuesday. we have pattern recognition technology on any chart, plus over 300 customizable studies to help you anticipate potential price movement. there's no way to predict that. for all the confidence you need. td ameritrade. you got this. attention investors! vectorvest mobile is here and it's free! make faster, smarter, better trading decisions with vectorvest mobile.
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should you be fearing the fed or welcoming rate hikes with open arms? i'll tell you what you must be doing to set up your money. plus a company capitalizing on american energy and the ceo of the hottest retailer, apple. "mad money" is next. and finally in tonight's fast but not least, floyd money mayweather is living up to his nickname. mayweather posted this picture on his instagram page earlier with the caption "when i travel i don't pack clothes, i only pack benjamins." mayweather has plenty of benjamins to pack. reports say the boxer earned more than $200 million in his 36-minute boxing match with manny pacquiao back in may. >> that's crazy. do we need to see that, though? that just makes me feel awful about myself. >> benjamins are $100 bills. >> i understand. i was confused. >> i think he's -- >> works hard for the money. what movie soundtrack? >> the one with the girl. >> flashdance. >> i knew that.
jennifer beals. >> donna summer. >> are you kidding me? >> back in the day. >> weave that in. >> come on. >> time now for the tiefinal tr. timothy seymour. >> of all the measures and barometers of market volatility we talked some some things we were worried about you have to talk about biotech and health care. we broke through the 200. also look at health care, look at hospitals. this has been a safety valve for the market. also maybe breaking down. >> david seaburg. >> look, intel today was upgraded. the stock took a little bit of a spike here. recently when they reported they talked about taking capex down a little bit. that's a short-lived phenomenon. they're going to have to rally capex in the near-term. it's going to have to happen for them to maintain their edge. i think the stock is actually capped here. i'd be a seller. >> pete najarian. >> got to be watching oil. you look at the way oil traded today, last couple of days, this huge move back to $50 and the oil volatility, the way that's exploded to the up side, i think that combination keeps an eye on all of the different energy names going forward, in particular as we get further into this week. >> guy adami.
>> evercore isi. we have them on the show all the time. they upgraded. goldman sachs and morgan stanley. keep your eyes on it. didn't trade well today. you mentioned that. watch them tomorrow. >> i'm melissa lee. thanks so much for watching. see you back here tomorrow at 5:00 for more my mission is simple, to make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere, and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now. heyi, i'm cramer. welcome to "mad money." welcome to camer qaa. other people want to make friends and i want you to save my money and my job is not just to entertain you, but teach you and coach. call me at 800-743-cnbc or tweet me @jim cramer. >> i'm slinging the ball and bringing on